Conference Board News Release (03/31/15)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased in February, improved in March. The index now stands at 101.3, up from 98.8 in February. The Expectations Index increased from 90.0 last month to 96.0 in March. The Present Situation Index, however, decreased from 112.1 in February to 109.1.

“Consumer confidence improved in March after retreating in February,” says Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. “This month’s increase was driven by an improved short-term outlook for both employment and income prospects; consumers were less upbeat about business conditions. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions declined for the second consecutive month, suggesting that growth may have softened in Q1, and doesn’t appear to be gaining any significant momentum heading into the spring months.”

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market saw gains. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased from 13.8% to 15.5%, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined from 14.8% to 13.5%. The proportion of consumers expecting growth in their incomes improved from 16.4% to 18.4%, while the proportion expecting a drop declined from 10.8% to 9.9%.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (03/30/2015)

Texas factory activity declined in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index fell to -5.2, posting its first negative reading in nearly two years. Meanwhile, the new orders index pushed further into negative territory, coming in at -16.1, and the growth rate of orders index remained negative for a fifth consecutive month but edged up to -15.3 in March. The shipments and capacity utilization indexes slipped to more negative readings, -8.7 and -6.4, respectively.

Labor market indicators reflected slight employment declines and shorter work weeks. The March employment index dipped to -1.8, its first negative reading since May 2013. Thirteen percent of firms reported net hiring, compared with 14% reporting net layoffs. The hours worked index has been gradually declining for six months and came in at -5.3 in March, down from -1.6 in February.

Wall Street Journal (03/30/15) Kate Davidson

The U.S. Federal Reserve is “groping” to determine the current full-employment level, according to former chairman Ben Bernanke. Fed officials are trying to decide whether the labor market is strong enough to weather an increase in interest rates from near zero.

“It’s even more complicated than it was before,” Bernanke said at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “The unemployment rate used to be the only number you had to look at. Now of course there are many dimensions. …It’s much harder to make an assessment.”