The upcoming midterm elections, which take place Nov. 3, promise to be one of the most significant elections in recent history, with control of Congress and several state legislatures hanging in the balance. It will mark the halfway point of President Donald Trump’s second term, and the election results may well give rise to several contenders for their parties’ 2028 presidential nominations.
State Legislatures
As in the past, midterm elections mean that most state legislatures will feature relatively short sessions. Of the 46 state legislatures in session this year, 41 will be in session for less than six months; 29 state legislatures will be in session for less than four months. Twelve legislative chambers are currently controlled by parties with majorities in the low single-digits, meaning a switch of power could happen in several of these legislatures. In Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, residents could see a state legislature that looks drastically different in 2027 than it does today.
Governors
The 2026 gubernatorial elections are also scheduled for November. In this cycle, 36 states will elect governors. In half of them, the incumbent is not running for re-election. That means Alabama, Alaska, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming will all have new governors sworn in next year regardless of who wins the election. According to the Cook Political Report, seven of the 36 races will be competitive, five of which will be open seats.
U.S. House of Representatives
As has become customary, even though all 435 seats are up for election this fall, a small percentage of them will actually be considered competitive. Most election experts rate less than 10% of the House seats as being competitive, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be new faces in 2027. As of today, 47 current members have announced they will not be running for re-election, and that number is expected to grow—perhaps significantly—over the next few months. Given the slim current Republican majority, many experts believe Democrats have a better-than-average chance of taking control of the Speaker’s gavel this fall.
U.S. Senate
Even though Republicans have almost twice as many seats to defend as Democrats (22 for Republicans; 13 for Democrats), there are even fewer truly contested seats in the Senate. Democrats need to flip only four Republican seats to take control of the upper chamber, which is still viewed by many as a long shot, but the governing margin for Republicans in 2027 could certainly be slimmer than it is today.
Conclusion
Faced with shorter legislative sessions and upcoming midterm elections, Congress and state legislatures are likely to focus on a core group of essential issues this year. Topics such as affordability, health care, taxes, and budgets are likely to dominate as legislators look to address voters’ concerns before what promises to be a tightly contested midterm election.
There is a lot of time left before voters cast their ballots this fall, and certainly time for a lot of factors to change. Regardless, it seems safe to say that no matter which party finds itself in power in Congress or in state legislatures, margins will be slim and all eyes will be looking ahead to 2028.
