With three weeks to go before Congress adjourns for the year, members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senators are looking at a very long to-do list before they can head home. With tensions still lingering following the longest government shutdown in history, these are some of the items that Congress will try to tackle before heading home for the holidays.
Health Care
The most critical deadline lawmakers will be facing over the next three weeks is Dec. 31, when enhanced premium subsidies for the Affordable Care Act expire. If the subsidies are not extended, millions of individual Americans and small businesses will face higher premiums or could even lose coverage.
That is not a scenario that politically vulnerable Republican House and Senate members want to face, but there does not appear to be consensus among them on extending the subsidies. In fact, many would prefer that House leadership propose a comprehensive health care reform plan that would focus on things like expanded health care savings accounts and other reforms. Since such a plan is unlikely to pass the Senate, it’s unclear what the backup plan would be. Will House leadership allow a modified ACA subsidy extension proposal reach the floor for a vote, or will they, and the president, be willing to let the subsidies disappear heading into an already highly charged midterm election year?
FY 2026 Spending Bills
With current funding for the government set to run out on Jan. 30, 2026, both House and Senate appropriations committees are hard at working drafting the nine outstanding appropriation bills. Considering the House and Senate continue to be far apart on topline spending levels for all nine bills, the real question seems to be if lawmakers can resolve spending and policy differences to pass an omnibus bill by the end of January—or will they need to pass another continuing resolution to stave off another government shutdown?
National Defense Authorization Act
This must-pass annual bill always gets done, but lately it has taken longer to do it. With both the House and Senate having passed their own versions of the NDAA, a compromise version must be negotiated and agreed to by both chambers before the end of the year. Republican policy riders, such as language that would block states from regulating artificial intelligence, likely will make negotiations with Democrats more difficult than usual.
Other Policy Issues
Many lawmakers are urging leadership to take up an annual tax extenders bill—which would include several expiring tax provisions, such as the Work Opportunity Tax Credit, as well as other provisions that were modified or not included not included in the July 2025 budget reconciliation bill. There seems to be consensus around a tax extenders bill, but there is little agreement on what should be included or how large it should be, which makes its future unclear at best.
What Is the Likely Outcome?
Although it is possible that Congress could come together and solve all these issues before the end of the year, it is also possible that lingering animosity over the shutdown means legislators end the session in three weeks without having accomplished anything.
The most likely outcome is something in the middle. With both sides still smarting after the recent shutdown, they should make significant progress on funding the government through the end of FY 2026—although a short CR may be needed to allow both sides more time to wrap everything up. A short-term, scaled-back extension of the ACA subsidies is also a distinct possibility, as is postponing the consideration of all other issues until the new year.
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