New York Times (10/03/13) Nelson D. Schwartz

Due to the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not be releasing a jobs report today. Wall Street prognosticators expect the shutdown to last a week or so, which is in line with most previous shutdowns. More pessimistic observers aren’t so sure, arguing that the politics behind this shutdown are similar to the much longer 1995-96 shutdown.

Each week of the shutdown will reduce fourth quarter economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point, according to Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. If the economy were robust, this would not make much of a difference, but given the slow growth of the economy and jobs, “Every 10th of a percent of growth matters much more [than in 1995-96],” says Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.

Bloomberg (10/03/13) Caroline Salas Gage; Duane Stanford

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart says declining labor participation rates and problems of underemployment make it “extremely challenging” to properly assess the labor market. Although joblessness declined from 7.4% in July to 7.3% in August, the fall was due to discouraged individuals giving up their job search. The labor force participation rate fell from 63.4% in July to 63.2% in August, the lowest rate since 1978.

Bloomberg Businessweek (10/03/13) Jeanna Smialek

The Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index dropped to 54.4 in September from 58.6 in August, the biggest decline since November 2008. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated a rate of 57. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Rising mortgage rates may be slowing housing progress, but movement in the manufacturing industry may be creating service demand.

The ISM’s index of new orders in the service industry fell to 59.6 in September from 60.5 in August. The employment index at nonmanufacturing companies dropped to 52.7 from 57. Nine industries reported rising employment; seven industries reported falling employment.