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Survey of Professional Forecasters: Steady Outlook for Growth With Healthier Labor Market

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (11/25/13)

According to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the outlook for growth for the U.S. economy has changed little since the last survey, three months ago. Real gross domestic product is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.8% this quarter and 2.5% next quarter, to hit 2.9% in the second quarter of 2014. Forecasters see real GDP growing 1.7% in 2013, 2.6% in 2014, 2.8% in 2015, and 2.7% in 2016, on an annual-average over annual-average basis.

Unemployment is projected to be an annual average of 7.5% in 2013, 7.0 % in 2014, 6.4% in 2015, and 6.0% in 2016. Nonfarm payroll employment are expected to add 187,300 jobs per month this quarter and 187,000 jobs per month next quarter. Monthly job gains are expected to be 181,900 in 2013 and 189,900 in 2014. Current quarter headline consumer price index inflation (CPI), which is the percent change in the index from a year ago, is expected to average 1.6%.