Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (08/15/14)

The 43 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia expect the unemployment rate to drop from an annual average of 6.3% this year to 5.7% in 2015, 5.4% in 2016, and 5.3% in 2017. They also anticipate that the growth rate for nonfarm payroll employment will be 228,600 jobs per month in the third quarter and 211,200 in the fourth quarter, with their projections suggesting monthly gains in nonfarm payroll employment of 204,800 in 2014 and 214,000 in 2015. The forecasters also determined the natural rate of unemployment to be 5.5%, with their estimates ranging from 4.5% to 6.7%.