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Economists’ Forecast: Here We Grow Again

Wall Street Journal (05/14/15) Kathleen Madigan

Forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey estimate the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.3% pace in the first three months of this year due to hits from winter weather and the West Coast port slowdown. However, the panel, on average, sees annualized economic growth of 2.8% in the current quarter ending June 30, supported by stronger wage growth and employment gains. In addition, they see the drag from weak trade and a strong dollar dissipating by the third and fourth quarters, delivering average economic growth at a 3.0% pace.

The survey of more than 60 economists showed a widespread expectation that consumers would begin spending again after several months of avoiding retail venues. The May survey was conducted before the U.S. Department of Commerce posted that retail sales were flat last month, but some economists played down those results.