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GDP Growth Forecasts Fall

National Association for Business Economics (06/08/15)

Real gross domestic product growth from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015 will be 2.3%, according to the National Association for Business Economics’ Outlook Survey panel’s median forecast, which is sharply lower than that reported in the March survey. The median forecast for 2016 is unchanged at 2.9%.

The median forecast for real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015 fell to 2.5% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from 3.0% in March. Quarterly growth is expected to rebound to 3.2% in the third quarter of 2015 before decelerating to 2.8% throughout 2016. These forecasts are in line with those reported in March.

The survey results reflect a slowing—but still robust—pace of improvement in the labor market. The median forecast for nonfarm payroll growth in 2015 declined from 251,000 in March to 217,000 in June, while the median forecast for 2016 slipped from 216,000 in March to 207,000. Expectations for unemployment are similar to those expressed in March, with the unemployment rate anticipated to decline to 5.2% on average during the fourth quarter of 2015 and to 4.9% during the fourth quarter of 2016.