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Inflation Expectations Decline Further; Earnings Growth Expectations Remain Unchanged

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that inflation expectations continued to decline across all horizons. The one-year measure dropped to 5.7% from 6.2% in July. Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth remained unchanged at 3.0% in August for the eighth consecutive month. Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 40.0%.

The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.7 percentage point to 11.1%. Similarly, the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 0.9 percentage point to 18.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased to 57.2% from 55.9% in July. The increase was most pronounced for those with a high-school education or less.