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Understanding the State of the Labor Market
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release its September jobs report due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Despite the absence of official numbers, it is clear that labor market growth is stalling. Private sector payroll data from ADP revealed a decrease in jobs by 32,000 in September, and total nonfarm payroll data collected by Revelio Labs showed an increase of just 60,000—driven by gains in education, health care, and government—still, these figures are far from an average of 82,000 jobs recorded in the first half of the year.
July’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data revealed a marked slowdown in both hires and quits, and the latest layoffs report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed U.S. employers announced about 54,000 job cuts in September——while the quarterly average of such announcements declined by 60% between the first quarter and third quarter of this year. These data points affirm the low-hire, low-fire paralysis that is dominating the labor market.
Employers are cautious to hire and invest in their workforces while employees are hesitant to leave their current roles for new opportunities.
These statistics underscore the dangers of a K-shaped labor market in which different segments of the market are seeing different rates of recovery—in this instance, a labor market that is working for those who are gainfully employed but broken for those on its sidelines.
Should the federal government decide to pursue mass layoffs during this shutdown, it would needlessly augment labor supply at a time when demand cannot accommodate the current pool of job seekers.
Staffing companies offer a unique value proposition, at a time when companies are hesitant to make long-term personnel decisions, and could see the kind of increase in demand for employees that often precedes a broader recovery in labor demand. As shown by the ASA Staffing Index, demand for staffing services has reached a critical inflection point, which may signal that a recovery is on the horizon.
NFIB: Job Openings Remain Steady
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ISM: Services Sector Activity Edged Down in September
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Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Amid Government Shutdown, Reports U.S. Economy Added 60,000 Jobs in September
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UCLA Anderson Forecast: Weakness Persists in U.S. Economy, Recovery Not Expected Until 2026
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In a Sea of Tech Talent, Companies Can’t Find the Workers They Want
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Paycom to Replace More Than 500 Workers With Artificial Intelligence at Oklahoma City Headquarters
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S&P Global: Production Growth Slows in September Amid Ongoing Tariff Disruptions
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StaffDNA Acquires Assets of Ethos Medical Staffing
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