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Business Roundtable Q3 CEO Economic Outlook Index Signals Continued U.S. Slowdown
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index declined 12 points from last quarter to 84 in the third quarter, its long-run average and well above the expansion or contraction threshold of 50. This quarter’s decline reflects a continued reduction in chief executive officer expectations and plans for the next six months.
In their fourth estimate of 2022 U.S. real gross domestic product growth, CEOs projected 2.3% growth for the year. Plans for hiring decreased 11 points to a value of 78. Plans for capital investment decreased 11 points to a value of 75. Expectations for sales decreased 12 points to a value of 99.
Employers Scouting for Full-Time, Lower-Level Employees
Ninety percent of U.S. hiring decision-makers say their company plans to hire employees in key departments through the end of the year, according to a survey of 1,003 hiring decision-makers by Express Employment Professionals. Information technology and technology support (29%), customer service (26%), general labor (25%), and sales (25%) are among the top jobs. Hiring managers most commonly plan to hire full-time employees (84%), either hourly (59%) or salaried (48%). Interest in hiring full-time employees has been steadily increasing since the first half of 2020.
Mid-level (55%) and entry-level (52%) jobs are the biggest categories of open jobs. Around three in 10 companies plan to hire senior-level employees (31%), about a quarter individual contributors (26%), and a fifth C-suite executives (20%). More than half of hiring managers (51%) say their company plans to hire recent college graduates to fill the entry or mid-level jobs. A quarter of hiring managers (24%) say their company plans to hire seasonal, temporary, or contract workers, up from 20% in 2021.
More Companies Embrace Hiring Technology as Enterprises Rank Quality of Hire as Top Priority
There has been accelerated adoption of talent acquisition technology and a greater role for artificial intelligence as more organizations embrace this technology to ensure ethical, efficient, and quality hiring, according to a survey of 300 senior level talent acquisition and human resource professionals by Modern Hire. Seventy-three percent of companies increased their investment in TA tech in 2022. Although efficiency continues to remain critical to TA, 70% said quality of hire will be the number one driver in TA investments in 2023, with an increased focus on retention. Some 68% said speed and efficiency are still important, followed closely by candidate experience (62%).
Although diversity, equity and inclusion—as well as bias—declined below other areas, 30% said providing a fair and equitable experience to every candidate is still critical. There seems to be conflicting views on candidates’ perception of AI in the interview and hiring process, but 44% are not bothered by it and would prefer AI to a recruiter who has no time to respond, or a hiring manager who acts on bias. At least 33% are embracing AI, and only 24% would prefer not to use it.
‘Work Hard, Play Hard’ and More Phrases That Can Scare Away Job Applicants
As workers grow more vocal about finding fulfilling jobs they can do without working much overtime—a practice that has been called “quiet quitting” or “anti-hustle”—many job seekers are closely examining job postings for commonly used phrases they view as red flags for potential overwork. Phrases that turn off job seekers include “must handle stress well” and “willing to wear many hats,” according to a survey of 800 job seekers by Paychex Inc. Some workers say that “we’re like a family” can read as code for being subject to verbal abuse, and descriptions touting perks such as free meals and on-site entertainment can indicate bosses will expect employees to put in long hours.
In reviews of employers by workers posting on Glassdoor, the terms “self-starter” and “hustle” came up in more negative comments than positive ones, according to a Glassdoor analysis. However, companies seem to be using those two terms in more job postings lately, according to Indeed.com. The term “fast-paced” used in job ads doubled between 2019 and 2022, Indeed noted.
Some Small Businesses Are Pulling Back on Hiring. Here’s What’s Giving Them Pause
Sixty-three percent of U.S. small-business owners are halting hiring, according to a survey of 5,618 small businesses by small-business network Alignable Inc. Of those, about 49% said they were looking for workers earlier in the year but stopped because of high payroll expenses, recession fears, and reduced revenue. In July, only 45% said they were pausing hiring. About 58% of small businesses said their total payroll costs are at least 50% more than prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. About 10% of small-business owners said they are cutting staff, up from 4% in July.
The percentage of small- and midsize-business owners feeling pessimistic inched up to 7% in the summer compared with 2% in the spring, according to a survey by PNC Bank. But 49% of owners still described themselves as highly optimistic. Nearly seven in 10 owners (69%) said they fear a recession is likely within the next year. Recruiters said the hiring market for top talent will remain intense, according to a survey by Employ Inc. About 69% said attracting and hiring talent will be difficult for the remainder of 2022, while more than half said there is not enough quality talent to fill current jobs.
The State of Tech Salaries in 2022
Technology job candidates in the San Francisco Bay Area continue to see the highest salary offers at an average local salary of $174,063, followed by Seattle ($168,069), New York ($161,128), Boston ($158,548), and Austin, TX ($157,612), according to an analysis of data from recruiting marketplace Hired, as well as a survey of more than 2,000 tech professionals by Hired. Average local salaries for candidates in mid-size markets (Boston, Los Angeles, and Seattle) have quickly caught up to salaries on par with larger tech hubs. Smaller markets such as Philadelphia (+12%), Dallas-Fort Worth (+11%), and Denver (+11%) showed the highest average local salary increases across all markets.
Remote salaries have continued to outpace local salaries. Average remote salaries climbed to $162,950 this year, ranking third highest overall in the report. “The hiring climate this year has been full of contradictions and challenges,” said Josh Brenner, Hired chief executive officer. “We’ve seen climbing salaries, aggressive hiring, and layoffs—all at once. However, the hiring landscape remains competitive as companies innovate and diversify their teams through remote work.”
Teacher Shortages Are Real, but Not for the Reason You Heard
There is little evidence to suggest teacher turnover has increased nationwide or educators are leaving in droves. Many schools have struggled to find enough educators, but the challenges are related more to hiring, especially for nonteaching staff jobs. The number of people employed in public schools dropped from almost 8.1 million in March 2020 to 7.3 million in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment has grown to 7.7 million since then, but that still leaves schools short around 360,000 employees.
Quit rates in education rose slightly this year, but that’s true for the nation as a whole, and teachers remain far more likely to stay in their job than a typical worker. Hiring has been so difficult largely because of an increase in the number of open jobs. Schools flush with federal pandemic relief money are creating new jobs and struggling to fill them at a time of low unemployment and stiff competition for workers of all kinds. Three-fourths of school leaders are trying to hire more substitutes, 58% are trying to hire more bus drivers, and 43% are trying to hire more tutors, according to a survey by RAND.
U.S. Employment Outlook Remains Strong as Employers Across Industries Plan to Increase Headcounts for Q4
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Physician Appointment Wait Times Up 8% From 2017
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