Bloomberg (07/10/14) Shobhana Chandra

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the week ended July 5 fell by 11,000 to 304,000, the fewest in more than a month, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast claims of 315,000. The four-week moving average of new claims dropped by 3,500 to 311,500.

Bloomberg Businessweek (07/10/14) Michelle Jamrisko; Catarina Saraiva

A survey of Bloomberg economists forecasts that gross domestic product will expand 3.1% from July through December, following a 3.3% gain in the last quarter. This comes as the U.S. economic expansion enters its sixth year. Economists say consumers will be buoyed by stock gains and an improving labor market, and the economic momentum will last into 2015, which could be the strongest year in a decade.

The 288,000 workers added to payrolls in June increased the monthly average to nearly 231,000 so far this year, and job gains would be the best since 1999 if that pace is maintained. According to Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc., “The job numbers reinforce our view that the economy’s struggles in the first quarter were an anomaly—they were a blip.”

Conference Board News Release (07/09/14)

The Conference Board and PwC’s Measure of CEO Confidence fell to 62 in the second quarter of 2014, down from 63 during the previous quarter. Forty-six percent of respondents said the economic climate is better than it was six months ago, down from 54% during the first quarter. Forty-eight percent said conditions in their industry have improved from the previous six months, up from 47% last quarter. However, just 46% of respondents expect improvement in their industries over the next six months, down from 52% in the first quarter.

Still “four out of every five expect profits will increase over the coming year, with market [or] demand growth the primary driving force,” says Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.

Wall Street Journal (07/09/14) Jon Hilsenrath; Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

At the June U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, Fed officials agreed to end their bond-buying program in October, reducing bond purchases in increments at the next three policy meetings. However, the Fed still faces tough decisions about the timing and pace of interest-rate increases in the coming months, with Fed chairman Janet Yellen wanting to avoid disruptions in the recovery. Most officials at the June meeting indicated they expect the first rate hike will come in 2015.

Since the bond-buying program began, the unemployment rate has fallen from 7.8% in September 2012 to 6.1% in June 2014, but official measures of inflation have consistently been below the Fed’s target of 2.0%.