Conference Board News Release (01/23/15)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.5% in December to 121.1, following a 0.4% increase in November.

“December’s gain in the LEI was driven by a majority of its components, suggesting the short-term outlook is getting brighter and the economy continues to build momentum,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at the Conference Board. “Still, a lack of growth in residential construction and average weekly hours in manufacturing remains a concern. Current economic conditions measured by the coincident indicators show employment and income gains are helping to keep the U.S. economy on a solid expansionary path despite some weakness in industrial production.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.2% in December to 111.4, following a 0.5% increase in November. The Lagging Economic Index increased 0.3% in December to 115.0, following a 0.3% increase in November.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (01/22/15)

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s January Manufacturing Survey revealed that manufacturing activity in the Plains states expanded at a slower pace, but producers’ expectations for future activity remained at solid levels. The month-to-month composite index fell from 8 in December to 3 in January. The employment index posted a five-month low, declining from 18 to 11.

Wall Street Journal (01/22/15) Eric Morath

Even though the number of Americans filing new jobless claims last week decreased by 10,000 to 307,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, the number was near a seven-month high, indicating that there may be a loss of momentum in the job market. Initial jobless claims remain near historic lows, but layoffs have picked up somewhat earlier this year.

Last summer, initial claims dropped below 300,000 and remained that way for the rest of the year, the best streak since 2000; that coincided with a strong year for hiring. December’s unemployment rate was 5.6%, the lowest since 2008, and employers have added more than 200,000 jobs for 11 consecutive months.