Conference Board News Release (08/20/15)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. declined 0.2% in July to 123.3, following a 0.6% increase in June.

“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in July, after four months of strong gains. Despite a sharp drop in housing permits, the U.S. LEI is still pointing to moderate economic growth through the remainder of the year,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at the Conference Board. “Current conditions, measured by the coincident economic index, have been rising moderately but steadily, driven by rising employment and income, and even industrial production has improved in recent months.”

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.2% in July to 112.5, following a 0.2% increase in June. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.3% in July to 118.1, following a 0.7% increase in June.

MarketWatch (08/20/15) Jeffry Bartash

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the week ended Aug. 15 rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 277,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast claims of 271,000. The four-week average of new claims increased by 5,500 to 271,500.

Wall Street Journal (08/19/15) Jon Hilsenrath

The U.S. Federal Reserve is undecided about whether to raise interest rates at its September meeting. For months officials have implied that they intend to start raising short-term rates from near-zero before the end of the year; however, they have yet to provide any conclusive indication they will do so at their September policy meeting. Notes from the July meeting highlighted why no definite decision has been made.

The Fed has consistently stated that it will not increase rates until it is more confident inflation will rise towards its 2% target. According to the July notes, “some participants expressed the view that the incoming information had not yet provided grounds for reasonable confidence that inflation would move back to 2% over the medium term.” Some officials worry about moving too quickly, and then lacking the necessary tools to respond if unanticipated events should cause the economy to falter. Other officials, however, argue that increasing rates could convey confidence about the economic outlook.