Wall Street Journal (09/22/15) Michael Derby

Federal Reserve officials who have spoken following last week’s high-profile policy meeting say a rate increase this year remains in the cards. In fact, central bankers say they weren’t far from taking that first step to start raising short-term interest rates. The decision not to raise rates was a “close call,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said Monday. Given all the tumult tied to China and other foreign economies and the resulting market churn, he said “I thought it prudent to wait” longer to raise rates. While officials agree rates should rise this year, comments since the meeting show a split on when exactly that should happen. Lockhart, who holds a voting role on the Federal Open Market Committee and often is looked to as a bellwether for the consensus view of policy makers, thinks the Fed will raise rates this year, citing an economy that is “performing solidly” amid good job gains. But he also said that while the Fed can act at any of its two remaining meetings this year, there is a tight window to gain the needed confidence to boost rates at the late October session.

Wall Street Journal (09/21/15) Kris Hudson

The U.S. construction industry has lost more than half a million Mexican-born workers since 2007, contributing to a labor shortage that’s likely to drive up home prices, according to a report released Monday by home-building analyst John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The analysis firm examined U.S. Department of Commerce data to determine that Mexican-born construction workers in the U.S. numbered 1.32 million last year compared with 1.89 million in 2007. Burns chief executive John Burns and his firm’s demographer, Chris Porter, conclude that many of those workers who went back to Mexico during the downturn have not returned to work in the U.S. due to tighter immigration controls—both for those entering legally and those not—and comparable job opportunities in some Mexican states with improving economies.

The home-building industry increasingly has cited labor shortages among the factors deterring greater production of late. The report steers clear of suggesting any changes to immigration policy. Rather, it cites numerous data points indicating a less hospitable environment in the U.S. in recent years for Mexican migration, legal or illegal. The report cites a 67% decline in immigration to the U.S. from Mexico from 2006 to 2013. Employers’ use of the E-Verify online system for verifying employment eligibility has risen from almost nothing in 2001 to more than 27 million employment checks last year.